Opportunity Equity Weekly Update for 4/25/2025 – 5/02/2025

Coinbase Follows Bitcoin Higher While QXO Falls on Capital Raise

Last week, the Opportunity Equity Strategy’s representative account gained 2.65%, underperforming the S&P 500’s 2.94% rise. (Exhibit 1). The strategy ended the week down -10.36% YTD, -745 basis points behind the S&P 500.

Exhibit 1: Performance of Opportunity Equity Representative Account Net of Fees, Versus S&P 500, Through 5/2/25¹

Time Period	Opportunity Equity Representative Account	S&P 500
Last Week (4/25- 5/2)	2.65%	2.94%
MTD	3.91%	2.12%
QTD	-1.12%	1.42%
YTD	-10.36%	-2.91%
1 Year	5.85%	13.82%
5 Year	13.83%	16.75%
10 Year	6.83%	12.43%
Inception (annualized since 6/26/00)	7.17%	12.43%

QXO, Inc. (QXO) rose through the 100-day moving average after completing the acquisition of Beacon Roofing Supply, Inc.

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) rose through the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after delivering earnings that beat on the top and bottom line. The company generated revenue of $42.3B vs. $41.4B expected and EPS of $6.43 vs. $5.24 expected. Meta reiterated their decision to direct spend towards generative AI opportunities and increased their FY25 CAPEX guidance from $62.5B at the midpoint to $68B at the midpoint. Mark Zuckerberg laid out his five AI focused growth angles for the company, including improved advertising, more engaged user experiences, business messaging, Meta AI, and AI devices. The company repurchased $13.4B in common stock (~1% of the current market cap). Evercore increased their price target from $725 to $750 (25% upside). Evercore was impressed with Meta’s 41% operating margins during the quarter and robust advertising revenue growth of ~20% y/y versus Alphabet’s ~10% y/y growth. 

Seadrill Limited (SDRL) moved higher despite Brent’s -6.94% move lower.

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) shares jumped last Friday on positive industry headlines. Delta announced a $1B share repurchase program (~3% of the current market cap) and Sun Country Air announced an earnings beat and buyback plan. Redburn lowered their price target from $135 to $110 (46% upside) and maintained their buy rating.

Citigroup Inc. (C) rose through the 50-day moving average on a stronger than expected jobs report. Oppenheimer increased their price target from $91 to $94 (33% upside).  

Exhibit 2: Significant² Contributors to Opportunity Equity Representative Account Performance, 4/25/25 - 5/2/2025

Name	Type	Net Return
QXO, Inc.	Equity	10.7%
Meta Platforms, Inc.	Equity	9.1%
Seadrill Limited	Equity	9.2%
United Airlines Holdings, Inc.	Equity	9.2%
Citigroup Inc.	Equity	3.2%

Energy Transfer LP (ET) followed WTI’s -6.06% move lower.

General Motors Co (GM) fell through the 50-day moving average despite announcing earnings that beat on the top and bottom line. The company delivered revenue of $44B vs. $43B expected and EPS of $3.35 vs. $2.57 expected. The company laid out guidance for a $4-$5B impact from tariffs and revised their FY25 free cash flow (FCF), EBIT, and EPS guidance downwards. The company expects to generate between $7.5B-$10B in free cash flow (20% FCF yield at the midpoint) and $8.25-$10.00 in EPS (~5x at the midpoint). Morningstar increased their price target from $73 to $75 (65% upside), previously anticipating a $7.7B impact from tariffs.

Citi lowered their price target on Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) from $350 to $270 (36% upside) and maintained their buy rating. Citi cited declining crypto prices and trading volumes from December’s peak as a near-term headwind. However, Citi remains optimistic over the long term and expects the company will grow market volume at a mid-teens CAGR over the next five years.

SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) announced a beat and raise last week, driven by continued momentum in both Financial Services and Lending. The company delivered revenue of $771M (+32.7% y/y) vs. $742M expected and EPS of $0.06 vs. $0.03 expected. SOFI also increased FY25 adjusted EBITDA guidance from $845M-$865M to $875M-$895M and EPS guidance from $0.25-$0.27 to $0.27-$0.28. Needham maintained their price target of $20 (53% upside). Needham believes SoFi’s improving fundamentals and strong revenue growth potential provide a favorable risk-reward setup.

Exhibit 3: Significant² Detractors from Opportunity Equity Representative Account Performance, 4/25/2025 - 5/2/2025

Name	Type	Net Return
Energy Transfer LP	Equity	-4.5%
New Security*	Derivative	-26.6%
General Motors Co	Equity	-3.9%
Coinbase Global, Inc.	Equity	-2.2%
SoFi Technologies, Inc.	Equity	-1.4%

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As of prior week's market close unless otherwise stated.

¹The performance figures for the representative Opportunity Equity account reflect the deduction investment management fees and certain other expenses. Returns greater than 1 year are annualized.

For additional information about Opportunity Equity Strategy performance, please click on the Opportunity Equity Strategy Composite Performance Disclosure. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

²Significant Contributors and Detractors are based on holdings that had the greatest effect on representative account performance for the week. Holdings that have been in the portfolio since the end of the most recent calendar quarter are identified by name. The net return shown above for each individual security represents the change in market price of the security during the week, according to a third-party pricing service, or for the partial period held in the portfolio during the week.  Net returns also include any purchases or sales that were made during the week. For information on how Contributor/Detractor data were calculated and a list showing the contribution to the Strategy’s weekly performance of each investment held at such quarter end, contact us.

Any views expressed are subject to change at any time, and Patient Capital Management disclaims any responsibility to update such views. There is no guarantee that market trends discussed herein will continue. The information presented should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any security and should not be relied upon as investment advice. It should not be assumed that any purchase or sale decisions will be profitable or will equal the performance of any security mentioned. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and there is no guarantee dividends will be paid or continued. References to specific securities are for illustrative purposes only. Portfolio composition is shown as of a point in time and is subject to change without notice. Content may not be reprinted, republished or used in any manner without written consent from Patient Capital Management. 

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