QXO Rises on Bullish Initiation Report While Alibaba Falls on Price War Concerns
Last week, the Opportunity Equity Strategy’s representative account gained 3.51%, outperforming the S&P 500’s 1.75% rise. (Exhibit 1). The strategy ended the week up 8.40% YTD, 90 basis points ahead the S&P 500.Exhibit 1: Performance of Opportunity Equity Representative Account Net of Fees, Versus S&P 500, Through 7/3/251
| Time Period | Opportunity Equity Representative Account | S&P 500 |
| Last Week (6/27- 7/03) | 3.51% | 1.75% |
| MTD | 3.44% | 1.22% |
| QTD | 3.44% | 1.22% |
| YTD | 8.40% | 7.50% |
| 1 Year | 23.93% | 14.95% |
| 5 Year | 12.69% | 16.69% |
| 10 Year | 9.03% | 13.71% |
| Inception (annualized since 6/26/00) | 7.94% | 8.02% |
Source: Bloomberg, Patient Capital Management.
Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. (PLAY) announced Toni Breidinger, NASCAR’s first Arab American female driver, as their 2025 Summer Ambassador. The collaboration will feature meet-and-greet events, custom merchandise, and nationwide racing game competitions.
UBS lowered its price target on Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) from $29 to $23 (5% upside) and downgraded the name from “buy” to “hold”. UBS is concerned Norwegian may miss their 2H25 guidance. They believe the company is having difficulty selling 9-day European itineraries and is prioritizing price over occupancy.
Truist initiated on QXO, Inc. (QXO) with a $30 price target (36% upside) and “buy” rating. Truist expressed confidence in CEO Brad Jacobs’s track record of consolidating fragmented markets. Truist believes that disciplined M&A, coupled with a bottoming residential cycle, creates a strong foundation for long-term EBITDA growth.
Seadrill Limited (SDRL) followed Brent’s 1.52% move higher.
Citigroup Inc. (C) reached a new 52-week high. Morgan Stanley increased their price target from $94 to $103 (16% upside).
Exhibit 2: Significant2 Contributors to Opportunity Equity Representative Account Performance, 6/27/25 - 7/3/2025
| Name | Type | Net Return |
| Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. | Equity | 13.5% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. | Equity | 8.9% |
| QXO, Inc. | Equity | 6.0% |
| Seadrill Limited | Equity | 11.7% |
| Citigroup Inc. | Equity | 5.1% |
Source: Patient Capital Management. See below for additional information.
To defend its e-commerce market share and expand its presence in food delivery, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) announced a $7 billion subsidy plan for consumers and merchants over the next twelve months. Goldman Sachs lowered their price target from $159 to $150 (38% upside) and maintained their buy rating. Goldman believes this will impact earnings and free cash flow in the near term, but they do not expect a price war to continue over the long term.
Baird increased their price target on Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) from $635 to $740 (3% upside).
Tempus AI, Inc. (TEM) dropped below its 50-day moving average following the pricing of a $650 million 0.75% convertible note due in 2030.
Jefferies raised their price target on CVS Health Corp (CVS) from $74 to $80 (19% upside). Jefferies expects CVS to generate strong free cash flow which can be used for share buybacks and debt reduction.
Energy Transfer LP (ET) fell through it’s 50-day and 200-day moving averages on limited news.
Exhibit 3: Significant2 Detractors from Opportunity Equity Representative Account Performance, 6/27/2025 - 7/3/2025
| Name | Type | Net Return |
| Alibaba Group Holding Ltd | Equity | -4.7% |
| Meta Platforms, Inc. | Equity | -2.0% |
| Tempus AI, Inc. | Equity | -8.3% |
| CVS Health Corp | Equity | -1.5% |
| Energy Transfer LP | Equity | -1.3% |
Source: Patient Capital Management. See below for additional information.
As of prior week's market close unless otherwise stated.
1The performance figures for the representative Opportunity Equity account reflect the deduction investment management fees and certain other expenses. Returns greater than 1 year are annualized.
For additional information about Opportunity Equity Strategy performance, please click on the Opportunity Equity Strategy Composite Performance Disclosure. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
2Significant Contributors and Detractors are based on holdings that had the greatest effect on representative account performance for the week. Holdings that have been in the portfolio since the end of the most recent calendar quarter are identified by name. The net return shown above for each individual security represents the change in market price of the security during the week, according to a third-party pricing service, or for the partial period held in the portfolio during the week. Net returns also include any purchases or sales that were made during the week. For information on how Contributor/Detractor data were calculated and a list showing the contribution to the Strategy’s weekly performance of each investment held at such quarter end, contact us.
Any views expressed are subject to change at any time, and Patient Capital Management disclaims any responsibility to update such views. There is no guarantee that market trends discussed herein will continue. The information presented should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any security and should not be relied upon as investment advice. It should not be assumed that any purchase or sale decisions will be profitable or will equal the performance of any security mentioned. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and there is no guarantee dividends will be paid or continued. References to specific securities are for illustrative purposes only. Portfolio composition is shown as of a point in time and is subject to change without notice. Content may not be reprinted, republished or used in any manner without written consent from Patient Capital Management.
©2025 Patient Capital Management, LLC
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